Are Ron Paul poll results valid?
The short answer, in my opinion, is yes.
For the record, I’ve openly rebuked Ron Paul supporters for “shady” poll practices in the past. I’ve seen countless instances where Paul’s e-activists slam polls that do not in any way involve Ron Paul, nor are they relevant to his campaign. One of these polls, for example, can be found on the Blogs for Fred Thompson blog.
The poll asks “Will Fred Thompson win the GOP primary?”. A wiki style page crafted to direct Ron Paul internet traffic to polls and pages sent more than 500 visits to the site within a few hours. Naturally, with most of these visits being Ron Paul fans, the poll was slammed with “no” votes.
What this does, in my opinion of course, is it renders the poll useless and irrelevant. THIS is the only area where I see the poll mongering being played out in a less than honest manner.
When it comes to actual Presidential polls, however, I now believe we should be paying far more attention to the results. I’ve drawn this conclusion thanks to the recent straw poll conducted by PoliticalDerby.com at the Conservative Leadership Conference.
I had the privilege of serving as conference director for CLC this year. Playing a significant role in the planning and implementation of a conference of this scale was not only an honor, but also a huge learning experience when it comes to conservative politics.
I learned that the conservative realm, specifically the fiscal conservatives, are far more Libertarian than most realize. The conference this year was heavily supported by the Libertarian party. A handful of the attendees mentioned that they would have liked to see the GOP be more involved, but for the most part the general consensus was that the Libertarian flavor was a welcomed addition to the limited-government minded conference.
And as a side note, the GOP was given ample opportunity to be involved. In fact, Jo Anne Davidson of the RNC was originally scheduled to discuss conservatism with Bill Redpath, chair for the Libertarian Party, but she “backed out” at the last minute.
As a chief organizer for CLC, I left the conference feeling ignored by the GOP, and embraced by limited-government Libertarian Party. So if anyone here is to blame for lack of inclusion of the GOP, it is the GOP itself.
But I digress…
Back on the Ron Paul subject. Many in the media, as well as in the ranks of the Republican party, almost instantly tried to discount the results for the CLC straw poll once PolitcalDerby.com made them public.
The problem with this is, this straw poll was conducted on one of the most level playing fields I’ve ever seen. I watched how the straw poll at CPAC was conducted earlier this year, and I’ve studied the process at several other venues since. The straw poll at CLC was carefully conducted by a very trusted group of associates. The process was also heavily debated and discussed in the weeks prior to the actual event.
We knew there was a potential for “cheating” and we took what we saw as the proper steps to ensure fair and relevant results.
Judging by the way that other straw polls have ended, we thought it was safe to assume that Romney or Hunter would come out ahead. Romney had a heavy presence at CLC, providing a townhall style meeting as well as a major mid day speech. Duncan Hunter also made a major speech and his supporters turned out in numbers similar to that of Ron Paul.
Ron Paul had a booth in the exhibit hall, but was not present at CLC.
With all of this in mind, we figured that Romney would probably take the lead with Hunter and Paul close behind. This was just a guess, but it made sense at the time.
When the results began to take shape, however, it was clear that the true limited-government minded conservatives present at CLC just didn’t click with any of the major candidates. In fact, Ron Paul walked away with a significant victory.
Ron Paul
32.80%
Mitt Romney
16.13%
Duncan Hunter
14.52%
Undecided
11.29%
Fred Thompson
7.53%
Rudy Giuliani
6.45%
Alan Keyes
3.76%
Mike Huckabee
3.23%
Tom Tancredo
1.61%
John McCain
1.08%
Other
1.08%
Sam Brownback
0.54%
Not only did we carefully watch the entire process, we counted twice. And, when the results were announced at the awards banquet on Saturday evening, the crowd erupted in applause at the news that Ron Paul had indeed won by a landslide.
The bottom line is that several hundred limited-government conservatives met here in Reno, Nevada, and agreed that none of the top tier candidates had their support.
This is one poll that simply cannot be argued. Ron Paul won the CLC straw poll fair and square.
-Eric Odom
Conference Director :: CLC 2007
Herschel Says:
Now lets see him do that on a scientific poll. Wait he cant. Ron Paul has no support. Libertarians may like him but I think real conservatives are kinda put off by his, surrender in Iraq and let Israel be destroyed, foriegn policy stance. He is in the wrong party, maybe if he switches to democrats fast enough they will let him in the debates.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 12:40 am
JC Says:
Sir, you are GOD! Have you ever thought about replacing Bill O’reilly on the O’reilly factor? Change it to the “Odom Factor”. You wouldn’t even have to change the “O” cause it’s already there!
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 12:40 am
Terry B. Says:
Ron Paul must have donated the Diebold voting machines! Like he did at the Iowa Straw Poll! Oh wait…that was Romney. That’s why he didn’t win.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 12:45 am
Eric Odom Says:
Herschel, I’m not sure what world you’re living in, but in the world I live in there are many, MANY Ron Paul supporters in every part of every city in America.
At CLC there were far more Republicans present than Libertarians, yet Paul still mopped the floor with the rest of the candidates.
And in regards to scientific polls, this post was about “straw polls”, so I haven’t really opined in that realm.
Speaking of opine, JC, God is a bit much.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 12:50 am
ctjohnson Says:
Herschel…I think the burden of proof is on you. Show me some supporter of the neocon candidates. You cannot…youtube link with videos? Meetup.com…oh sorry…none there. http://www.fec.gov…oh whoops…look at all the big $2300 donations from people who say their jobs are…lawyers…own companies…yeah…they are small. So you can hide in your limited world with only the and I repeat only comeback is ’scientific’ polls. You have no other response to back up the neocon support…zero…while Ron Paul can show dominance on the street…youtube videos…at speeches and rallies…on the web…straw polls…and individual donors.
So Herschel…I’ve seen you post across the web…Buh Bye Troll! You have nothing!
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 2:53 am
Kent Says:
Great article! Here’s some more ammo from all the straw polls (real people casting votes in person) that have been taken around the country so far:
Ron Paul’s Head-to-Head Records (Win-Lose-Tie):
Ron Paul v. Rudy Giuliani 31-5-0
Ron Paul v. Mitt Romney 24-12-0
Ron Paul v. Fred Thompson 21-14-0
Ron Paul v. John McCain 32-3-0
Ron Paul v. Mike Huckabee 30-4-1
Ron Paul v. Sam Brownback 32-2-1
Ron Paul v. Tom Tancredo 33-1-0
Ron Paul v. Duncan Hunter 32-2-0
Here’s the source: http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/
Given that the only legitimate question about Ron’s support for his campaign has been whether his internet support will translate into activist bodies working in the trenches … or at least committed to voting for him, this is BIG news. Ron has beat the pants off EVERY other R candidate over all the times flesh-and-blood support has been required. Heck, he has won more than lost against all candidates BY A FACTOR OF TWO (with the minor exception of Thompson (there is’s 3:2 in favor of Ron), with Thompson steadily losing ground.
But this isn’t the biggest story revealing the level of support the various candidates enjoy around the country. Certainly the “scientific” polls that presume the future will always be like the past — and therefore survey only those who have been reliable voters within their party’s mainstream — are woefully off target. Ron Paul has energized multiple demographics that have not been participating as their parties might expect over many years. Republicans who couldn’t support either of the Bushes and stayed home? Not polled. Unaffiliated voters? Not polled. Crossovers from the Libertarian, Constitution, Green, and Reform parties? Not polled. Democrats who realize that their own candidates are going to protract the war in Iraq — and maybe extend it to Iran if Bush doesn’t beat them to it — well … not polled either.
How many presidential candidates from previous elections have endorsed the other candidates? Well, certainly Bush would endorse McRomneygiulianompson; probably his daddy would, too. But Ron Paul has the support of Libertarian Michael Badnarik (2004), Pat Buchanan (whenever), and I think maybe the Natural Law Party candidate for 2004. Wanna bet he gets strong support from the Constitution Party?
Heck, there are probably a lot of Greens who support him because he won’t cater to corporate interests.
But the most important indicator of all has only recently begun to percolate into major media coverage of the campaign: the phenomenal grassroots support that has driven Ron Paul’s success, completely independent of his official campaign’s efforts (apart from announcing his schedule and such). Zillions of “Ron Paul Revolution” signs have materialized around the country. Typically, when they are taken down by officials, others take their place. Campuses are rife with Ron Paul signs and messages chalked on sidewalks. If you look at all the campaign materials circulated to this point in the campaign on behalf of Ron Paul, I’d bet his official campaign is responsible for less than 30%. Probably less than 20%. And if you count YouTube videos and similar online posts, make that less than 5%….
When the time comes to actually SPEND campaign donations (which have mainly been sitting in the bank), they will definitely get more bang for the buck than any of his competitors’ ads could hope to attain. Why? Because the straw polls have proved that when people get to compare his views with those of his competitors, they flock to him like iron filings to a magnet!
OK, I’ve ranted enough. You get the point. Ron Paul can circumvent the major media. More to the point, if the major media desires to remain relevant, they will need to (and have already begun to) acknowledge Ron Paul’s remarkable appeal to Americans across the country.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 3:24 am
Chris Says:
Ron Paul has a rabid pack of internet fanboys. You cannot go to any of the popular social sites without being spammed by everything Ron Paul (I think I saw a video on YouTube of Ron Paul taking a leak for God’s sakes!).
Ron Paul has put up some impressive results in Straw Polls. So of the politically minded people out there (and there are WAYYY too few of you), he seems to be picking up the lion’s share of support.
So I guess the question really is this:
How does this get rolled out to Joe/Jane Sixpack? What else can we do other than spread it by word of mouth?
My biggest fear is once the primaries start that the general public will latch onto the lasting images of Rudy ‘Dizhonner’ Giuliani and go that way. He certainly has a name and image advantage over Ron Paul and if you get away from the internet and ask around to the uninformed public, I think many of you will be shocked how low Ron Paul’s name recognition is.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 5:26 am
Jim Young Says:
I cannot believe that some people still believe that the war in Iraq is any sort of legitimate enterprise. This fiasco has delayed and interfered in the inevitable civil war in that Country. Has cost thousands of American lives, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives and cost the U.S. Taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars. It was obviously instigated and promoted upon lies and innuendo and was promoted by one person (guess who?) who had a personal vendetta because of his daddies failings. WAKE UP AMERICA! Take back your country. Real Republicans, take back Your Party.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 5:39 am
Jim Davidson Says:
Let us see the results of the only polls that matter, when the primaries are held. Meanwhile, these supposedly “scientific” polls use methodologies that are suspect, and quite clearly, reduce Paul’s potential for good results. One of the methodologies is to use landline telephone numbers. Many of Paul’s supporters are younger and use cell phones. So, those numbers are not typically available to Gallup by looking in the phone book. I haven’t had a landline for two years, and don’t miss it a bit. And Gallup never calls my Vonage phone, never calls my cell. They never call anyone’s VOIP phone or cell. Which means they’ll never detect voters who only use those kinds of phones. And, that fits very closely with the ‘net savvy fans of Ron Paul.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Validus Says:
Rock on, Ron Paul!!
Conservative Leadership Conference chose Ron Paul!
He won FAIR AND SQUARE!
TAKE THAT FAKE CONSERVATIVES!
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Jamie Jackson Says:
“The bottom line is that several hundred limited-government conservatives met here in Reno, Nevada, and agreed that none of the top tier candidates had their support.”
No, the bottom line is that they chose the top tier candidate. The only reason the CFR candidates are deemed “top tier” is because the CFR Dino Media put them on TV all day, every day. Ron Paul is eating away their former support; name recognition grows daily, as does funding, as does the volunteer base. The others are melting from the heat of the Ron Paul Revolution.
The only people who don’t know about this are those who are still trying to get their info only from the Dino Media. We’ll blanket them shortly.
Buh-bye, Rudy McRompson. Hello, President Paul.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Lisa Cate Says:
Ron Paul is the candidate I have been wanting to vote for my entire life! Just look at his views. Best domestic policy & far more economical foreign policy to vote for. Other candidates are ‘lesser of two evils’ but Ron Paul is someone to vote FOR that I actually WANT to elect to the Presidency! I’m getting tired of Presidents concerning themselves mostly with other countries while letting this country stagnate. Concern for Israel of China isn’t doing this country any good if this country is falling apart while we mindlessly buy cheap Chinese imports. Let’s get this country’s economy cranked back up & the government leaned down. I definately hope Ron Paul wins in 2008!
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Peter Says:
To Herschel above regarding Israel…
* According to the CIA, Iran may build one nuclear weapon within 10 years
* Ahmadinejad may be evil, but he’s not stupid. It is estimated that Israel has about 300 nuclear weapons and has ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) capabilities. If Iran attacks Israel with a nuclear weapon, Israel will WIPE IRAN off the face of the Earth, within an hour.
* The Soviet Union had over 40,000 nuclear weapons, and we are worrying about a third world country that has no nuclear weapons, no army, air force or navy???
* Iran does not posses ICBM capabilities able to reach the United States
* Ahmadinejad is enjoying his empire over there. He’s happy with the power he has and he doesn’t want to lose it.
* And last, we can wipe Iran off the face of the Earth within just 10 minutes. Ron Paul may be anti war, but he has said before that in the case of imminent attack, he will defend the United States with its full military power.
The fear for Iran is being created to prepare this country to go to another war and benefit a few corporations (*cough* Halliburton, war equipment manufacturers and oil interests *cough*). Just like the war in Iraq is about oil. Plain and simple. There are far worse things happening around the world, such as genocide in Africa and Burma, and yet, we don’t go “help them” get liberated from such tyrants.
Note: the comment that “Israel wants to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth” was actually a translation error. Look it up. I bet you don’t hear the media correcting that “error”…
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Brad Says:
America Still Lives !!!
Take Our Country Back !!!
Stop The Fantasy; Run With Reality !!!
Go Ron Paul !!!
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Ward Says:
Invite Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Fred Thompson to explain exactly what is conservative about corporate sponsored government.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
Ward Says:
…And what is this baloney about “top-tier”? So the aforementioned candidates, supported and funded by the CFR, are given this ambiguous label by media outlets who are also supported and funded by the CFR. How does that qualify any of these puppets to be considered “above” a legitimate candidate? Certainly this label does not imbue them with worthiness of a vote. If anything, it reveals their corruption and disqualifies them from being worthy, for we now know who pulls their strings.
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Ward Says:
Which candidate will represent the people of this great nation, and which candidate will represent his own bank account? Which candidate has something to hide, and which candidate has a voting record that confirms their service? Which candidate will undermine our personal liberties and which candidate will support the constitution?
Posted on October 18th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Anotherone Says:
Hershel,
Don’t you get it? We Ron Paul supporters are the true conservatives. You neocons are immoral and deserved to be kick out of the Republican party.
Posted on October 19th, 2007 at 1:23 am